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INTERPOL's surveillance network in curbing transnational terrorism
(2014-10-23)
This paper investigates the role that INTERPOL surveillance – the Mobile INTERPOL Network Database (MIND) and the Fixed INTERPOL Network Database (FIND) – played in the War on Terror since its inception in 2005. MIND/FIND ...
On the strategic equivalence of multiple-choice test scoring rules
(University of the Basque Country, Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II, 2005-12)
A disadvantage of multiple-choice tests is that students have incentives to guess. To discourage guessing, it is common to use scoring rules that either penalize wrong answers or reward omissions. These scoring rules are ...
Terrorism and the World Economy
(University of the Basque Country, Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II, 2005-10)
It has been argued that terrorism should not have a large effect on economic activity, because terrorist attacks destroy only a small fraction of the stock of capital of a country (see, e.g., Becker and Murphy, 2001). In ...
Linguistic Polarization and Conflict in the Basque Country
(University of the Basque Country, Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II, 2011-12)
This paper investigates the relationship between linguistic polarization and conflict in the Basque Country. During the 40 years of Franco’s dictatorship the use of the Basque language was banned. Therefore, there may be ...
Going Multinational under Exchange Rate Uncertainty
(University of the Basque Country, Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II, 2005-02)
A domestic exporting firm faces exchange rate uncertainty and has the option to install capacity abroad, thus becoming multinational. We analyze when the firm should exercise such an option optimally in the context of a ...
Methods for Measuring Aggregate Costs of Conflict
(University of the Basque Country, Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II, 2010-09)
This paper reviews the methods for measuring the economic cost of conflict. Estimating the economic costs of conflict requires a counterfactual calculation, which makes this a very difficult task. Social researchers have ...
Optimal Correction for Guessing in Multiple-Choice Tests
(University of the Basque Country, Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II, 2007-12)
Building on Item Response Theory we introduce students’ optimal behavior in multiple-choice tests. Our simulations indicate that the optimal penalty is relatively high, because although correction for guessing discriminates ...
Strategic Votes and Sincere Counterfactuals
(2013-11-07)
The Random Utility Model (RUM) of voting behavior can account for strategic voting by making use of proxy indicators that measure voter incentives to vote strategically. The
contribution of this paper is to propose a new ...
The Economic Cost of Armed Conflict
(2016-12-13)
This paper estimates the distribution of the effect of armed conflict on real GDP per capita and investment. For each conflict, we construct a synthetic control from a set of conflict-free countries that closely resembles ...
A factor model of seasonality in stock returns
(University of the Basque Country, Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II, 2002)
Most empirical evidence on stock market seasonality is based on the Dummy Variable Approach (DVA). Typically, the DVA leaves too much variability of stock returns unexplained and inference usually leads to weak or null ...