El impacto del terrorismo en el discurso político en España: un análisis de contenido de los discursos de los presidentes de Gobierno en los debates parlamentarios

Abstract

This research note aims to analyze the determinants of terrorism saliency in elites' political discourse by means of a content analysis of the Spanish Presidents' speeches at the investiture sessions and the debates on the general political situation of Spain in the Spanish Parliament. Thus, it is shown the quantitative weight terrorism has had in these speeches. Apart from describing the weight of this issue, the article points out a series of hypotheses regarding changes of the saliency in these speeches and it also tries to check them provisionally. The text first states that ceasefires declared by terrorist gangs have some influence, raising the importance politicians give to this phenomenon. Second, especially relevant attacks also make terrorism grow its presence in political speeches. Third, formal agreements to exclude terrorism from party competition (such as the Ajuria-Enea Pact) have the opposite influence, for they reduce the saliency of this issue. Finally, public opinion matters: The more people consider terrorism as a problem, the more Spanish Presidents talk about it. The note tries to fill a gap in research, because the quantitative analysis of political elites' discourse about terrorism has been largely neglected. Methodologically, it combines content analysis of political texts, survey data and contextual data regarding ETA's terrorist attacks and ceasefires.