A Modelization of the Propagation of COVID-19 in Regions of Spain and Italy with Evaluation of the Transmission Rates Related to the Intervention Measures

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Date
2021-02-05
Author
Nistal Riobello, Raúl ORCID
De la Sen Parte, Manuel ORCID
Gabirondo Aranguren, Jon ORCID
Alonso Quesada, Santiago
Garrido Hernández, Aitor Josu ORCID
Garrido Hernández, Izaskun ORCID
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Biology 10(2) : (2021) // Article ID 121
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10810/50409
Abstract
Two discrete mathematical SIR models (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) are proposed for modelling the propagation of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) through Spain and Italy. One of the proposed models is delay-free while the other one considers a delay in the propagation of the infection. The objective is to estimate the transmission, also known as infectivity rate, through time taking into account the infection evolution data supplied by the official health care systems in both countries. Such a parameter is estimated through time at different regional levels and it is seen to be strongly dependent on the intervention measures such as the total (except essential activities) or partial levels of lockdown. Typically, the infectivity rate evolves towards a minimum value under total lockdown and it increases again when the confinement measures are partially or totally removed.
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2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).