Overhead line ampacity forecasting and a methodology for assessing risk and line capacity utilization

Abstract

This paper proposes a methodology for overhead line ampacity forecasting that enables empirical probabilistic forecasts to be made up to one day ahead, which is useful for grid scheduling and operation. The proposed method is based on the statistical adaptation of weather forecasts to the line-span scale and aims to produce reliable forecasts that allow the selection of a low risk of overheating overhead conductors by TSOs and DSOs. Moreover, a methodology for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts and line capacity utilization is also proposed.