Measuring left-tail risk of fish species

Abstract

[EN]The main objective of this paper is to perform a risk analysis for the key commercial fish species in the FAO area 27 by means of a bundle of financial left-tail risk indicators, including Value-at-Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall (ES) and Expectiles (EX), and panel data of catches (Qit) to measure the left-tail risk of catches (LTRi); an empirical and probabilistic measure of the worst-case reduction of catches resulting from huge negative shocks. LTRi can be useful, not only to classify the fish species according to their risk level, but also, using the appropriate weights, to infer the risk to any other aggregation level such as fleet, fishing community or fishing country. In this paper, we are employing our species level (LTRi) estimations to calculate the left-tail risk of catches of the EU fishing countries (LTRj), a country level proxy variable for the risk inherent to the fishing activity itself.