A method for selecting a climate model: an application for maximum daily temperature in Southern Spain

Abadie, Luis María; Moral Zuazo, María Paz

dc.contributor.author	Abadie, Luis María
dc.contributor.author	Moral Zuazo, María Paz
dc.date.accessioned	2023-05-10T17:58:31Z
dc.date.available	2023-05-10T17:58:31Z
dc.date.issued	2023-04
dc.identifier.citation	Theoretical and Applied Climatology 152(1-2) : 773-786 (2023)	es_ES
dc.identifier.issn	0177-798X
dc.identifier.issn	1434-4483
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10810/61080
dc.description.abstract	General circulation models (GCM) show projections of climate variables that when downscaled can be applied to analyse future behaviour in different areas or places. Using them is possible not just to obtain expected values of climate variables but also to calculate their distributions and use those values to assess the effects of climate change at a local level. However, these calculations depend on the GCM selected. In this paper, daily maximum near-surface air temperatures from 21 climate models under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 and historic daily maximum temperatures (1990–2019) from nine cities in southern Spain are used with two objectives: first, to investigate past behaviour broken down into a deterministic part and a stochastic part; second, to compare historical data (2006–2019) with the information extracted from the 21 GCMs based on calculating goodness of fit in the period for both deterministic and stochastic parts. The methodology proposed may be useful in selecting a model or a range of models for use in a specific study. The results show positive historical and future trends in maximum daily temperature for these cities. The GCMs with the best fit for each city in this specific case are also presented.	es_ES
dc.description.sponsorship	Open Access funding provided thanks to the CRUE-CSIC agreement with Springer Nature. This work was supported by María de Maeztu Excellence Unit 2023-2027 Ref. CEX2021-001201-M, funded by MCIN/AEI /10.13039/501100011033, by Basque Government IT1697-22 and by the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (MCIN, Spain), Agencia Estatal de Investigación (AEI/10.13039/501100011033/) and Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER) “Una manera de hacer Europa” under the I+D+i research grant PID2020-112951GB-I00.	es_ES
dc.language.iso	eng	es_ES
dc.publisher	Springer	es_ES
dc.relation	info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MICINN/CEX2021-001201-M	es_ES
dc.relation	info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MICINN/PID2020-112951GB-I00	es_ES
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess	es_ES
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/	*
dc.title	A method for selecting a climate model: an application for maximum daily temperature in Southern Spain	es_ES
dc.type	info:eu-repo/semantics/article	es_ES
dc.rights.holder	© The Author(s) 2023. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.	es_ES
dc.rights.holder	Atribución 3.0 España	*
dc.relation.publisherversion	https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-023-04411-6	es_ES
dc.identifier.doi	10.1007/s00704-023-04411-6
dc.departamentoes	Métodos Cuantitativos	es_ES
dc.departamentoeu	Metodo Kuantitatiboak	es_ES

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© The Author(s) 2023. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as © The Author(s) 2023. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.