Streamflow trends of the Pyrenees using observations and multi-model approach (1980–2013)

Abstract

Study region: The Pyrenees. Study focus: The Pyrenees is sensitive to changes in climate (both natural and of anthropic origin) and changes in land use and cover (LULC). These changes can influence the water resources. The historical evolution (1980–2013) of the stream flows are studied using observed time series from non-influenced gauging stations and two models (SASER and SWAT). Their comparison helps to detect and analyze changes in flow rates and their trends (trends are computed using the Sen’s slope estimator, the significance of which was evaluated using the Mann-Kendall test). Further- more, it also allows to explore the question of attribution (these models do not simulate LULC change). New hydrological insights for the region: A complex and diverse domain such as the Pyrenees gives large differences between modelled trends revealing a large uncertainty that has been observed thanks to the use of two models. For the study period, mostly there are no significant trends. When trends are present in the observations and are also simulated, they are attributed to the effects of climate (natural variability and human induced climate change). When the significant trends observed are not simulated by the models, they are mainly attributed to changes in LULC. In general, models have difficulties detecting observed trends, leading to their attribution to changes in LULCs rather than climate, but there are some notable exceptions.